Visual representation of 275 projected seats • See detailed breakdown below
Mean seats (out of 275) with 95% confidence intervals
Proportional representation national vote share
2- and 3-party combinations ranked by combined mean seats. Bar width = projected seats (same scale as above). % = probability of clearing 138-seat majority (simulation-backed where available, otherwise mean-seat proxy).
All 165 First-Past-The-Post constituencies. Seat counts show simulation mean FPTP seats.
Understanding Win Probabilities: The win probability shows how often each party wins the seat across simulations. In competitive 3-way or 4-way races, the most likely winner may have less than 50% probability - this is normal for FPTP (first-past-the-post) voting where you only need more votes than any other party, not a majority. Example: If UML wins 40% of simulations, NC wins 35%, and RSP wins 25%, UML is the "likely winner" even though they win less than half the time.
| Constituency ↕ | Likely Winner (Proj. Vote Share) ↕ | Win Probability ↕ | Runner-Ups (Proj. Vote Share) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Achham-1 | NC 29.2% |
89%
|
UML: 25.8% | MAOIST: 18.4% |
| Achham-2 | NC 31.9% |
93%
|
UML: 27.7% | MAOIST: 15.9% |
| Arghakhanchi-1 | UML 32.4% |
99%
|
NC: 27.1% | RSP: 22.8% |
| Baglung-1 | RSP 28.3% |
56%
|
NC: 27.3% | UML: 23.6% |
| Baglung-2 | NC 27.8% |
85%
|
UML: 24.3% | RSP: 20.3% |
| Baitadi-1 | UML 29.7% |
66%
|
NC: 28.7% | MAOIST: 16.9% |
| Bajhang-1 | UML 28.3% |
59%
|
NC: 27.6% | MAOIST: 16.2% |
| Bajura-1 | NC 36.8% |
96%
|
UML: 31.7% | RSP: 12.0% |
| Banke-1 | RSP 28.0% |
90%
|
UML: 21.6% | NC: 21.0% |
| Banke-2 | JSP 29.9% |
100%
|
RSP: 19.1% | RPP: 18.4% |
| Banke-3 | NC 26.0% |
61%
|
RSP: 24.4% | UML: 22.4% |
| Bara-1 | NC 26.8% |
82%
|
UML: 22.3% | RSP: 21.2% |
| Bara-2 | JSP 25.8% |
81%
|
NC: 21.8% | JP: 18.2% |
| Bara-3 | RSP 24.1% |
48% (Competitive)
|
JSP: 23.0% | UML: 21.9% |
| Bara-4 | RSP 28.6% |
76%
|
UML: 26.6% | MAOIST: 15.7% |
| Bardiya-1 | RSP 27.7% |
84%
|
UML: 23.1% | NC: 21.5% |
| Bardiya-2 | NC 23.8% |
50%
|
MAOIST: 22.2% | RSP: 21.6% |
| Bhaktapur-1 | NMKP 42.6% |
100%
|
RSP: 26.1% | NC: 12.1% |
| Bhaktapur-2 | RSP 30.0% |
98%
|
UML: 21.2% | NC: 20.5% |
| Bhojpur-1 | UML 32.4% |
100%
|
NC: 24.6% | MAOIST: 21.5% |
| Chitwan-1 | RSP 35.1% |
100%
|
UML: 24.6% | NC: 20.4% |
| Chitwan-2 | RSP 36.3% |
100%
|
UML: 23.1% | NC: 19.4% |
| Chitwan-3 | RSP 34.0% |
100%
|
MAOIST: 18.5% | RPP: 18.4% |
| Dadeldhura-1 | NC 37.9% |
100%
|
RSP: 19.5% | MAOIST: 18.7% |
| Dailekh-1 | NC 31.1% |
79%
|
UML: 28.8% | RSP: 15.2% |
| Dailekh-2 | NC 28.0% |
55%
|
UML: 27.6% | MAOIST: 16.2% |
| Dang-1 | RSP 29.3% |
96%
|
UML: 21.3% | NC: 20.6% |
| Dang-2 | RSP 28.9% |
90%
|
UML: 23.2% | NC: 22.2% |
| Dang-3 | RSP 28.9% |
83%
|
NC: 24.5% | UML: 22.1% |
| Darchula-1 | UML 32.2% |
76%
|
NC: 30.6% | MAOIST: 16.1% |
| Dhading-1 | RSP 25.6% |
63%
|
UML: 24.3% | NC: 19.6% |
| Dhading-2 | NC 26.4% |
86%
|
RSP: 22.1% | UML: 19.9% |
| Dhankuta-1 | UML 36.6% |
100%
|
NC: 26.5% | RSP: 17.4% |
| Dhanusha-1 | NC 21.8% |
30% (Competitive)
|
UML: 21.0% | JP: 20.7% |
| Dhanusha-2 | JSP 21.7% |
33% (Competitive)
|
NC: 21.6% | UML: 21.5% |
| Dhanusha-3 | NC 36.7% |
100%
|
UML: 24.7% | JP: 14.2% |
| Dhanusha-4 | NC 27.9% |
65%
|
UML: 26.8% | RSP: 17.6% |
| Dolakha-1 | UML 26.8% |
50% (Competitive)
|
NC: 26.6% | RSP: 20.6% |
| Dolpa-1 | UML 27.4% |
90%
|
MAOIST: 24.1% | NC: 19.6% |
| Doti-1 | NC 31.4% |
86%
|
UML: 28.4% | MAOIST: 15.0% |
| Gorkha-1 | MAOIST 25.7% |
52%
|
RSP: 25.3% | NC: 22.3% |
| Gorkha-2 | MAOIST 30.8% |
79%
|
RSP: 29.0% | NC: 21.3% |
| Gulmi-1 | UML 28.3% |
66%
|
NC: 26.8% | RSP: 24.3% |
| Gulmi-2 | UML 32.8% |
99%
|
NC: 28.0% | RSP: 19.8% |
| Humla-1 | NC 29.0% |
76%
|
MAOIST: 26.8% | UML: 20.9% |
| Ilam-1 | UML 27.0% |
74%
|
NC: 25.0% | RSP: 21.2% |
| Ilam-2 | UML 29.3% |
66%
|
NC: 28.2% | RSP: 20.7% |
| Jajarkot-1 | NC 30.8% |
98%
|
UML: 24.9% | MAOIST: 22.1% |
| Jhapa-1 | RSP 29.1% |
75%
|
NC: 26.1% | UML: 21.8% |
| Jhapa-2 | RSP 32.8% |
98%
|
UML: 24.6% | NC: 18.5% |
| Jhapa-3 | NC 25.4% |
73%
|
RSP: 22.7% | RPP: 20.5% |
| Jhapa-4 | RSP 31.1% |
98%
|
UML: 24.0% | NC: 21.1% |
| Jhapa-5 | RSP 31.4% |
59%
|
UML: 30.9% | NC: 17.8% |
| Jumla-1 | NC 23.7% |
54%
|
UML: 21.8% | MAOIST: 21.8% |
| Kailali-1 | NC 29.1% |
98%
|
MAOIST: 21.9% | RSP: 20.4% |
| Kailali-2 | UML 24.4% |
47% (Competitive)
|
RSP: 23.8% | NC: 22.6% |
| Kailali-3 | RSP 24.6% |
54%
|
NC: 23.2% | MAOIST: 21.1% |
| Kailali-4 | UML 25.4% |
42% (Competitive)
|
NC: 25.2% | RSP: 22.8% |
| Kailali-5 | NC 25.5% |
69%
|
RSP: 22.8% | UML: 21.8% |
| Kalikot-1 | MAOIST 28.4% |
90%
|
UML: 23.6% | NC: 22.8% |
| Kanchanpur-1 | UML 25.1% |
58%
|
NC: 23.9% | RSP: 21.6% |
| Kanchanpur-2 | NC 26.4% |
71%
|
RSP: 23.7% | UML: 22.1% |
| Kanchanpur-3 | NC 35.2% |
100%
|
RSP: 21.9% | UML: 19.6% |
| Kapilvastu-1 | UML 26.5% |
55%
|
RSP: 25.3% | NC: 24.1% |
| Kapilvastu-2 | NC 30.8% |
90%
|
UML: 27.2% | RSP: 18.9% |
| Kapilvastu-3 | UML 25.6% |
94%
|
RPP: 20.0% | NC: 18.6% |
| Kaski-1 | RSP 32.7% |
99%
|
UML: 24.1% | NC: 21.6% |
| Kaski-2 | RSP 32.9% |
99%
|
UML: 22.3% | NC: 20.5% |
| Kaski-3 | RSP 32.3% |
98%
|
UML: 23.7% | NC: 22.5% |
| Kathmandu-1 | RSP 32.2% |
98%
|
NC: 24.1% | RPP: 19.1% |
| Kathmandu-10 | RSP 32.7% |
100%
|
NC: 20.7% | UML: 17.5% |
| Kathmandu-2 | RSP 33.5% |
99%
|
RPP: 21.6% | UML: 17.4% |
| Kathmandu-3 | RSP 32.4% |
99%
|
NC: 23.2% | UML: 19.5% |
| Kathmandu-4 | RSP 31.5% |
98%
|
NC: 22.7% | UML: 19.2% |
| Kathmandu-5 | RSP 33.0% |
100%
|
NC: 20.9% | UML: 18.7% |
| Kathmandu-6 | RSP 34.4% |
100%
|
NC: 21.2% | UML: 20.1% |
| Kathmandu-7 | RSP 36.6% |
100%
|
UML: 18.5% | NC: 17.3% |
| Kathmandu-8 | RSP 35.2% |
100%
|
NC: 19.9% | RPP: 19.7% |
| Kathmandu-9 | RSP 33.5% |
100%
|
UML: 19.8% | NC: 19.4% |
| Kavrepalanchok-1 | RSP 25.4% |
64%
|
NC: 22.6% | UML: 22.2% |
| Kavrepalanchok-2 | RSP 28.9% |
81%
|
UML: 25.6% | NC: 23.0% |
| Khotang-1 | UML 29.8% |
92%
|
NC: 26.6% | MAOIST: 19.2% |
| Lalitpur-1 | RSP 26.3% |
51%
|
NC: 25.7% | UML: 22.5% |
| Lalitpur-2 | RSP 33.5% |
100%
|
UML: 19.6% | NC: 19.0% |
| Lalitpur-3 | RSP 33.9% |
100%
|
UML: 19.0% | RPP: 16.7% |
| Lamjung-1 | NC 27.2% |
45% (Competitive)
|
UML: 26.9% | RSP: 23.7% |
| Mahottari-1 | RSP 26.1% |
55%
|
MAOIST: 25.2% | UML: 19.3% |
| Mahottari-2 | NC 27.8% |
94%
|
JP: 22.2% | JSP: 18.1% |
| Mahottari-3 | JSP 29.4% |
99%
|
JP: 21.1% | NC: 20.1% |
| Mahottari-4 | JSP 23.4% |
61%
|
JP: 19.9% | NC: 19.7% |
| Makwanpur-1 | RSP 31.0% |
100%
|
UML: 20.0% | NC: 16.6% |
| Makwanpur-2 | RSP 26.4% |
57%
|
UML: 25.4% | NC: 22.7% |
| Manang-1 | NC 35.8% |
98%
|
UML: 29.8% | RSP: 15.5% |
| Morang-1 | RSP 27.4% |
63%
|
UML: 26.0% | NC: 22.4% |
| Morang-2 | UML 26.9% |
55%
|
NC: 25.9% | RSP: 23.4% |
| Morang-3 | RSP 28.4% |
66%
|
NC: 26.3% | UML: 21.1% |
| Morang-4 | RSP 24.5% |
48% (Competitive)
|
NC: 24.1% | UML: 21.0% |
| Morang-5 | NC 37.0% |
100%
|
JSP: 20.2% | RSP: 15.0% |
| Morang-6 | RSP 27.3% |
73%
|
NC: 24.5% | UML: 19.4% |
| Mugu-1 | NC 27.8% |
77%
|
UML: 25.8% | MAOIST: 18.8% |
| Mustang-1 | UML 34.3% |
99%
|
NC: 29.1% | RSP: 14.8% |
| Myagdi-1 | UML 28.6% |
93%
|
NC: 25.0% | RSP: 20.2% |
| Nawalparasi (Bardaghat Susta East)-1 | RSP 32.2% |
98%
|
NC: 24.3% | UML: 21.5% |
| Nawalparasi (Bardaghat Susta East)-2 | RSP 28.0% |
61%
|
NC: 25.7% | UML: 25.4% |
| Nawalparasi (Bardaghat Susta West)-1 | NC 27.8% |
51%
|
RSP: 27.9% | UML: 19.8% |
| Nawalparasi (Bardaghat Susta West)-2 | RSP 28.3% |
89%
|
RPP: 21.9% | NC: 20.1% |
| Nuwakot-1 | RSP 22.8% |
38% (Competitive)
|
NC: 22.4% | MAOIST: 22.1% |
| Nuwakot-2 | RSP 28.3% |
77%
|
NC: 25.5% | UML: 18.9% |
| Okhaldhunga-1 | NC 29.9% |
74%
|
UML: 28.1% | RSP: 16.9% |
| Palpa-1 | UML 40.0% |
100%
|
NC: 30.1% | RSP: 18.7% |
| Palpa-2 | RSP 26.2% |
43% (Competitive)
|
NC: 25.6% | UML: 25.3% |
| Panchthar-1 | UML 31.1% |
98%
|
NC: 26.1% | MAOIST: 18.8% |
| Parsa-1 | JSP 24.7% |
69%
|
NC: 20.8% | RPP: 19.3% |
| Parsa-2 | NC 34.1% |
100%
|
JSP: 23.6% | RSP: 15.1% |
| Parsa-3 | NC 29.7% |
95%
|
UML: 24.5% | RSP: 16.6% |
| Parsa-4 | NC 32.9% |
100%
|
UML: 22.4% | JSP: 19.8% |
| Parvat-1 | UML 28.1% |
65%
|
RSP: 26.9% | NC: 24.5% |
| Pyuthan-1 | UML 36.2% |
100%
|
NC: 22.6% | RSP: 18.8% |
| Ramechhap-1 | UML 24.6% |
44% (Competitive)
|
NC: 24.1% | MAOIST: 22.3% |
| Rasuwa-1 | NC 40.5% |
100%
|
UML: 23.3% | RSP: 16.8% |
| Rautahat-1 | NC 32.4% |
100%
|
CPN(US): 20.4% | UML: 18.7% |
| Rautahat-2 | NC 25.8% |
88%
|
JSP: 20.5% | UML: 19.8% |
| Rautahat-3 | NC 31.5% |
100%
|
JSP: 18.9% | CPN(US): 16.9% |
| Rautahat-4 | RSP 24.8% |
66%
|
NC: 21.8% | CPN(US): 18.5% |
| Rolpa-1 | MAOIST 41.4% |
100%
|
NC: 24.3% | UML: 17.7% |
| Rukum East-1 | MAOIST 36.7% |
100%
|
NC: 27.4% | UML: 17.3% |
| Rukum West-1 | MAOIST 51.6% |
100%
|
NC: 16.4% | UML: 14.8% |
| Rupandehi-1 | RSP 31.9% |
99%
|
NC: 22.6% | UML: 18.1% |
| Rupandehi-2 | RSP 33.2% |
99%
|
UML: 24.5% | NC: 19.4% |
| Rupandehi-3 | RSP 30.2% |
97%
|
NC: 22.9% | UML: 18.6% |
| Rupandehi-4 | NC 33.0% |
94%
|
JP: 27.9% | RSP: 16.9% |
| Rupandehi-5 | RSP 25.7% |
64%
|
NC: 23.0% | UML: 22.3% |
| Salyan-1 | MAOIST 23.6% |
46% (Competitive)
|
NC: 22.3% | UML: 21.9% |
| Sankhuwasabha-1 | UML 28.9% |
52%
|
NC: 28.8% | RSP: 17.3% |
| Saptari-1 | JP 30.3% |
100%
|
JSP: 20.8% | UML: 18.9% |
| Saptari-2 | JP 49.2% |
100%
|
JSP: 25.9% | MAOIST: 10.5% |
| Saptari-3 | NC 26.6% |
65%
|
JP: 25.3% | JSP: 19.8% |
| Saptari-4 | JP 25.2% |
66%
|
JSP: 23.5% | NC: 19.7% |
| Sarlahi-1 | RSP 29.3% |
95%
|
MAOIST: 20.2% | JSP: 17.4% |
| Sarlahi-2 | NC 25.1% |
78%
|
JP: 21.1% | MAOIST: 20.6% |
| Sarlahi-3 | RSP 24.8% |
68%
|
MAOIST: 21.1% | JSP: 19.8% |
| Sarlahi-4 | NC 26.6% |
90%
|
JP: 21.4% | MAOIST: 19.4% |
| Sindhuli-1 | UML 26.8% |
70%
|
NC: 25.3% | RSP: 19.9% |
| Sindhuli-2 | MAOIST 24.4% |
49% (Competitive)
|
UML: 23.5% | NC: 21.5% |
| Sindhupalchok-1 | UML 25.0% |
66%
|
NC: 22.8% | RSP: 21.4% |
| Sindhupalchok-2 | UML 23.6% |
43% (Competitive)
|
NC: 23.3% | RSP: 20.7% |
| Siraha-1 | NC 24.6% |
67%
|
UML: 22.3% | JSP: 20.3% |
| Siraha-2 | JP 23.8% |
62%
|
JSP: 21.3% | NC: 20.0% |
| Siraha-3 | NC 24.5% |
68%
|
UML: 21.8% | JSP: 18.5% |
| Siraha-4 | JP 27.4% |
92%
|
JSP: 22.6% | UML: 17.4% |
| Solukhumbu-1 | UML 32.7% |
100%
|
NC: 25.6% | MAOIST: 21.4% |
| Sunsari-1 | RSP 33.2% |
100%
|
UML: 21.7% | NC: 16.7% |
| Sunsari-2 | RSP 31.2% |
98%
|
UML: 22.4% | NC: 21.5% |
| Sunsari-3 | UML 28.4% |
50% (Competitive)
|
NC: 28.2% | RSP: 22.0% |
| Sunsari-4 | NC 32.8% |
100%
|
UML: 23.0% | RSP: 19.9% |
| Surkhet-1 | NC 33.6% |
98%
|
UML: 27.6% | RSP: 16.6% |
| Surkhet-2 | NC 25.7% |
50%
|
UML: 25.0% | RSP: 22.4% |
| Syangja-1 | RSP 27.6% |
47% (Competitive)
|
NC: 27.2% | UML: 25.1% |
| Syangja-2 | NC 29.8% |
72%
|
RSP: 27.3% | UML: 24.4% |
| Tanahun-1 | RSP 30.2% |
90%
|
NC: 25.1% | UML: 20.0% |
| Tanahun-2 | RSP 27.4% |
53%
|
NC: 26.4% | UML: 24.4% |
| Taplejung-1 | UML 32.6% |
86%
|
NC: 30.2% | MAOIST: 14.3% |
| Terhathum-1 | UML 30.5% |
66%
|
NC: 29.5% | RSP: 18.7% |
| Udayapur-1 | UML 25.2% |
47% (Competitive)
|
RSP: 24.2% | NC: 23.8% |
| Udayapur-2 | UML 25.8% |
73%
|
NC: 22.9% | RSP: 22.8% |
Note: Win probability is the percentage of simulations where the party won this constituency. Competitive races (<70%) are where the outcome is most uncertain.