sarlahi-4 Election Forecast

📊 Key Forecast Insights

Gagan Kumar Thapa favored at 74.2%, but Amaresh Kumar Singh has a 25.8% real chance

Expected 4.7-point margin — consolidation scenarios matter

Confidence: MEDIUM based on 10,000 simulations

95% CI: Gagan Kumar Thapa 20.0%–38.3%, Amaresh Kumar Singh 16.3%–32.0%

Win Probability

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

📊 Balanced Model • Data-Driven

🌳 GAGAN KUMAR THAPA

74.2%

Nepali Congress

7,416 of 10,000 wins — Favored

🔔 AMARESH KUMAR SINGH

25.8%

Rastriya Swatantra Party

2,582 of 10,000 wins — Real Chance

🎯 Expected Result

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa (Nepali Congress) ★ LIKELY WINNER 28.4%

25,669 votes

95% CI: 20.0% – 38.3%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh (Rastriya Swatantra Party) 23.8%

21,464 votes

95% CI: 16.3% – 32.0%

☀️ Amnish Kumar Yadav (CPN-UML) 9.0%

8,128 votes

95% CI: 4.8% – 14.9%

🌾 Ram Sahay Prasad Yadav (JSP) 8.1%

7,282 votes

95% CI: 4.0% – 14.4%

🔴 Ranjit Ray (CPN (Maoist)) 6.2%

5,582 votes

95% CI: 3.4% – 10.4%

Madhumala Yadav (MADHUMALA) 6.0%

5,379 votes

95% CI: 3.3% – 10.2%

🌻 Ram Babu Ray (Janata Party) 5.5%

4,958 votes

95% CI: 3.1% – 9.5%

Bhagawati Devi (UCPN) 5.1%

4,651 votes

95% CI: 2.9% – 9.3%

🏔️ Mahesh Mahato (RPP) 5.1%

4,598 votes

95% CI: 2.8% – 9.2%

UNK2 (UNP) 2.9%

2,630 votes

95% CI: 1.8% – 3.9%

Expected Margin: +4.7 percentage points

Gagan Kumar Thapa leads by 4,204 votes | Total turnout: ~90,342 votes

Key Statistics

74.2%

Gagan Kumar Thapa Win

25.8%

Amaresh Kumar Singh Win

4.7

Point Margin

4.2K

Vote Margin

10,000

Simulations

MEDIUM

Confidence

Model: core_contestable
Generated: February 10, 2026 20:48
Method: Monte Carlo • Core + Contestable decomposition
Consolidation: Enabled (5 scenarios)

Race Characterization

Clear Favorite:
4.7-point margin (4,204 votes)

Projected Winner: Gagan Kumar Thapa (Nepali Congress)
Win Probability: 74.2%
Confidence: MEDIUM

Credible Intervals (95%):
🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa: 20.0% – 38.3%
🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh: 16.3% – 32.0%
Ranges reflect uncertainty in contestable voter allocation

Consolidation Scenarios

All Separate 30%

Baseline — no party drops out

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa 26.8%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh 23.6%

JSP → NC 25%

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa 31.1%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh 23.5%

Jp To Rsp 15%

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa 26.8%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh 25.0%

UML → NC 15%

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa 30.3%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh 23.6%

Ncp To Nc 15%

🌳 Gagan Kumar Thapa 26.9%

🔔 Amaresh Kumar Singh 23.4%

FORECAST SUMMARY

Gagan Kumar Thapa is the clear favorite (74.2%). Expected outcome: Gagan Kumar Thapa 28.4%, Amaresh Kumar Singh 23.8% (4.7-point margin).

Data-Driven • 10,000 Simulations • MEDIUM Confidence

🎯 GAGAN KUMAR THAPA (Nepali Congress): 74.2% WIN PROBABILITY