Quantitative modeling and data analysis for complex real-world systems

Who We Are

What we do

We're a small, independent group of Nepali researchers currently living in the USA. who build probabilistic models, perform statistical analysis, and simulations to study real world problems, where data is messy, uncertainty is real, and clear thinking matters. Our work is open, methodology-first, and built to be reproducible. Current focus: political and social systems in Nepal.

Our Projects
Election Forecasting · Nepal
Nepal 2082 Parliamentary Election
We modeled all 165 FPTP constituencies and the 110-seat PR allocation before the 2082 election. Built on a zero-sum Dirichlet model with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated against 2079 results. The election wrapped on Falgun 21, 2082 and the post-mortem is now published.
Completed — Post-mortem published
Read post-mortem All 165 results
FPTP Accuracy
82 / 165
KTM Valley
14 / 15
RSP Final Seats
182 / 275
Constituencies Modeled
165

Published Forecasts

National · 275 Seats
National Forecast
Full parliament projection — 165 FPTP seats and 110-seat PR allocation combined.
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Constituency · Jhapa-5
Jhapa-5
Balen Shah vs KP Sharma Oli — the most watched constituency of the 2082 cycle.
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Constituency · Sarlahi-4
Sarlahi-4
Gagan Kumar Thapa vs Amaresh Kumar Singh — a high-confidence call that didn't hold.
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Fiscal Analysis · Nepal Federalism
Nepal's Pradesh Structure: White Elephant or Misdiagnosed Problem?
People keep saying the seven Pradesh governments cost too much. We went to the actual audited accounts — the Financial Comptroller General Office's Consolidated Financial Statement — to check. The numbers tell a different story than the headlines.
Published — March 2026
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Province Share of Spending
10.7%
Provinces as % of GDP
3.8%
Federal Deficit (FY 2022/23)
Rs 181B
Federal Recurrent Share
69.8%
CapEx Baseline Deviation
±3%
Impact Analysis · Labour & Economy
The Gulf is Burning. Nepal is Watching.
The 2026 Iran war put 1.73 million Nepali workers in active conflict zones overnight. We map the six impact channels, quantify the remittance exposure, and lay out what the Balen Shah government must do — short-term and long-term.
Published — April 2026
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Nepalis in Gulf
1.73M
Remittances % of GDP
28.6%
Monthly Inflow
Rs 193B
Held above poverty
2.6M people
Impact Channels
6 mapped
Impact Analysis · Education Policy
Nepal's Five-Day School Week
Nepal's April 2026 fuel-crisis directive moves schools from a 6-day to a 5-day week — aligning the country with global norms. We quantify the 3-hour weekly transition gap, benchmark Nepal against India and the US, and map what schools can realistically do about it.
Published — April 2026
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Weekly change
−9.1%
Annual gap
~110 hrs
Equiv. school days
~18–20
Global alignment
5-day week
Session delay
13 days